Modelling and simulation

UBC - Chair of Environmental Biology and Chemodynamics

ESA - Department of Ecosystem Analysis

 

Modelling and simulation play an important role in the effort of structural and functional exploration of ecological systems. Environmental risk analysis uses different types of models for exposure and effect assessment as well as for risk characterization. The integration of empirical observations and theoretical models allows the development and testing of multifactorial hypotheses on the effects of disturbance. Theory-based simulation models allow mapping and prediction of concentration-dependent effects and their extent at the population and ecosystem level (prospective modelling). Individual-based models simulate life-cycles of individual organisms and allow the extrapolation of effects on populations based on concentration-dependent life data. At the ecosystem level, populations or communities are treated as compartments and their interactions are quantified in the light of variable environmental conditions. Statistical modeling approaches develop model structures by inductive means. They use observational data to deduce causal connections and the general nature of the processes in the investigated system (retrospective modelling). For the analysis of spatial and temporal dynamics not only mathematical methods but also patterns of pattern recognition and artificial intelligence are used. The interpretation of ecosystems as non-linear networks of interacting components allows the modeling of emergent effects in terms of the self-organizing potential of the systems.

Group management

Ottermanns, Richard, Dr. (Working group Computational Ecology, UBC)
Preuß, Thomas G., Dr. (Working group Mechanistic Stress Ecology, UBC)
Strauß, Tido, Dr. (gaiac)

Topics

Mechanistic Simulation:

  • Individual-based models (IBM Daphnia, IBM Chaoborus, IBM Notonecta)
  • Compartment models (StoLaM, landscape model)

Statistical Modelling:

  • Development of indicators for given environmental conditions (Bioindicators)
  • Gradient analysis to find drivers for community composition (Retrospective analysis)
  • Visualization of community reactions under environmental stress (Effect analysis)
  • Development of classification systems for natural systems (Classifier Design)
  • Elucidation of hidden and indirect effects of xenobiotics on ecological communities (Dominance effects)
  • Analysis of succession of disturbed systems (Biodiversity dynamics)
  • Statistical analysis to validate a priori models in mechanistic / deductive modeling (Confirmatory analysis)
  • Explorative analysis to elucidate multivariate correlation patterns (Generation of hypotheses)
  • Stochastic simulation and scenario analysis to predict the reaction of communities as complex dynamical systems (Prospective modelling)

Projects

  • COMBITOX - Umweltrisiken von PSM zwischen Prognose und Realität: Wie belastbar sind Ergebnisse der ökotoxikologischen Risikobewertung zum einzelnen Mittel vor dem Hintergrund der üblichen Anwendungspraxis (Tankmischungen, Spritzserien)?, 2015 - 2018
  • MetalFish: Untersuchungen zum Einfluss von Silber auf die Entwicklung und die Genexpression von Zebrafischembryonen, seit 2015
  • Statistische Auswertungstools und Modellierung (Teilprojekt im Verbundvorhaben EDAPHOBASE), 2013 - 2017
  • MICROTOX: Transformation, Bioakkumulation und Toxizität organischer Mikroschadstoffe im Reservoir des Drei-Schluchten-Staudamms, 2010 - 2014
  • Integrative Metaanalyse zur Kausalität beobachteter Effekte aus spezifischer Toxizität und molekularen Wirkungsmechanismen sedimentgebundener Umweltschadstoffe
  • Entwicklung eines Toxikokinetik-Modells von Pflanzenschutzmitteln zur Vorhersage von Expositions-Konzentrationen im Bienenstock (UBC), 2012 - 2015
  • Exzellenzcluster TMFB – Ökotoxikologische Untersuchung von Biokraftstoffen als Grundlage für rechnergestützte modellbasierte Vorhersagen ökotoxikologischer Potenz, 2012 - 2017
  • Quantifizierung der Selbst-Organisationsfähigkeit von Buchenwäldern: Indikatoren für ein nachhaltiges Management, seit 2012
  • Water balance of beech forests under different management conditions. Balancing ecosystem functions and services, seit 2012
  • Entwicklung eines TK/TD Wachstumsmodells von Myriophyllum spicatum, 2011-2014
  • Entwicklung eines Algorithmus zur Datenintegration und statistischen Kausalmodellierung von Genexpressionsdaten und ökotoxikologischen Effekten in Danio rerio in Abhängigkeit sedimenttypischer Belastungsszenarien, 2011-2012
  • Simulating toxicokinetics of plant protection products within a bee hive to predict exposure concentration of bees – a feasibility study, 2011-2012
  • Non-linear dynamics in age class structured populations of Daphnia magna exposed to different stressors, 2010-2011
  • JARA-HPC: Parallelization of the GraS-Model for Detailed Spatial Prediction of Grassland Succession, 2009-2010
  • Cream: Mechanistic Effect Models for Ecological Risk Assessment of Chemicals, 2009-2013
  • Litter dwelling beetle diversity as indicator for habitat quality and development of an integrative data analysis concept for classification and ecological pattern recognition in secondary forests in the Mata Atlântica (Paraná, Brazil), 2006 - 2010
  • Modellierung der Räuber-Beute-Beziehung Notonecta vs. Daphnia, 2007 - 2009
  • PEvEP: Prediction of effects from variable exposure scenarios to plankton communities, 2004 - 2008
  • Computergestütztes Steuerungskonzept zur Optimierung des Verbundsystems Bioteiche - Boisdorfer See, 2005 - 2007
  • Modellierung von Landschaftsentwicklungsszenarien für die Managementzone im Nationalpark Eifel, 2004 - 2006
  • Individuenbasierte Modellierung aquatischer Dipteren (Chaoborus crystallinus) zur ökotoxikologischen Bewertung des Recovery-Potenzials in Mesokosmen, seit 2002
  • Mathematische Simulationsmodelle für Weiher und Flachseen, seit 1997