UBC - Chair of Environmental Biology and Chemodynamics

ESA - Department of Ecosystem Analysis

Modelling and simulation play an important role in the study of ecological systems. Mechanistic/deterministic models are used in environmental risk assessment to perform estimation of exposition and effects as well as risk characterization itself. Simulation models are capable to reproduce and predict concentration effects on populations and ecosystems.
Individual based simulation uses life-cycle models of individuals to extrapolate concentration dependend shifts in life data to populations and multi-species systems. Individual based simulation is based on a probabilistic structure and models natural variability explicitly, which causes differences in individuals. On the ecosystem level, populations or communities are treated as compartments, quantifying the interactions (compartment models).
Empirical/inductive modelling approaches develop the model structure in an inductive way. They are based on actual data, to deduce the interactions in the system on investigation. In this approach, the inductive step plays an important role as a statistical syllogism. As this aspect is of great importance, the approach is often called statistical or stochastic modelling. Besides these mathematical methods, approaches from pattern recognition sciences are applied.

Workgroup leaders

• Ottermanns, Richard, Dr.
• Preuß, Thomas G., Dr.
• Strauß, Tido, Dr. (gaiac)

Topics

Mechanistic simulation

• Individual-based models (IBM Daphnia, IBM Chaoborus, IBM Notonecta)
• Compartment models (StoLaM, Landscape model)

Statistical modelling

• Research into spatio-temporal patterns, synecology and bioindicator potential of invertebrate species (bioindicator development)
• Investigations in species-species and physico-species interactions (gradient analysis, retrospective modelling)
• Visualisation of communities shifts under stress (effect analysis)
• Development of classification systems for natural communities (classifier design)
• Investigation in hidden and indirect effects of xenobiotica on communities and populations (dominance effects)
• Analysis of succession of disturbed and renatured systems (biodiversity dynamics)
• Statistical verification of a priori models in mechanistic/deductive modelling (confirmatory analysis)
• Explorative analyses to model multivariate correlation patterns (hypotheses generation)
• Stochastic simulation and scenario analyses to predict the dynamics of natural communities as complex adaptive systems (prospective modelling)

Projects

	Cluster of Excellence TMFB – Ecotoxicological investigations of biofuels as a basis for computational model based prediction of ecotoxicological potencies
	2012 - 2017
	Simulating toxicokinetics of plant protection products within a bee hive to predict exposure concentration of bees – a feasibility study
	2011 - 2012
	JARA-HPC: Parallelization of the GraS-Model for Detailed Spatial Prediction of Grassland Succession
	2009-2010
	Cream: Mechanistic Effect Models for Ecological Risk Assessment of Chemicals
	2009-2013
	Modelling the predator prey relationship Notonecta vs. Daphnia
	2007 - 2009
	PEvEP: Prediction of effects from variable exposure scenarios to plankton communities
	2004 - 2008
	Modelling for the improvement of surface water quality of lakes
	2005 - 2007
	Modelling Nationalpark Eifel landscape scenarios
	2004 - 2006
	Individual-based modelling of aquatic diptera (Chaoborus crystallinus)
	seit 2002
	Mathematical simulation models for shallow lakes
	seit 1997